The NHL's salary cap landscape just experienced a substantial shift, primarily due to Leo Carlsson's recent contract. His five-year, $18 million average annual value (AAV) deal with the Philadelphia Flyers, matched by the Anaheim Ducks, has reset expectations around player salaries, once again igniting conversations regarding max contracts.
This contract made Carlsson the highest-paid player by AAV in league history, surpassing Kirill Kaprizov’s previous record of $17 million AAV. This monumental shift not only highlights the increasing financial power of NHL franchises but also sets the stage for several players to potentially command maximum contracts based on the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).
The formula for the maximum AAV a player can secure is straightforward: 20 percent of the existing salary cap. For the 2026-27 season, with the cap established at $104 million, this means that players could command up to $20.8 million AAV. Projections for the 2027-28 season suggest the cap may rise to $113 million, allowing for an even higher maximum salary of $22.6 million AAV.
Interestingly, only one player in NHL history, Brad Richards, has successfully negotiated a contract that represented the maximum 20 percent of the salary cap at the time of signing, back in 2006. Richards’ contract, however, became slightly less impactful when the cap increased post-signing. Given this context, the NHL community is left to wonder whether more players will leverage their value in record-setting contracts moving forward. Here’s a look at some prominent players who could make a strong case for demanding maximum deals.
Macklin Celebrini: A Rising Star
Macklin Celebrini could be high on the list. As a generational talent, the first overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, he’s already established his place among the elite. Following a stellar sophomore season, where he scored 45 goals and set a franchise record with 115 points for the San Jose Sharks, Celebrini is poised for a hefty payday. Analysts, including Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman, believe the Sharks will preemptively negotiate to avoid the complexities of an offer sheet coming his way.
Celebrini currently faces an intriguing decision: sign for $20.8 million AAV immediately or hold out for the 2027 cap update that could net him $22.6 million AAV. Given his performance, the Sharks would likely be eager to accommodate his demands, seeking to retain the generational player they drafted.
Cale Makar: A Hall of Fame Trajectory
Equally positioned to demand the max is Cale Makar. The Colorado Avalanche defenseman, just 27, has already built an impressive Hall of Fame resume with two Norris Trophies, a Conn Smythe, and a Stanley Cup under his belt. With 507 points in only 470 NHL games, Makar has been the benchmark for defensemen in the league for years. His current contract, which has been seen as a bargain at $9 million AAV reflecting just 11.04 percent of the cap at the time of his signing, may no longer suffice as he approaches free agency in 2027.
Connor McDavid: Unpredictable Decisions
Of course, no conversation about potential max contact demands is complete without Connor McDavid. Universally regarded as the best player in the league, McDavid could realistically command top dollar come 2028. However, his history of signing for less than market value raises questions. He opted to take less in both his rookie contract renewal and a subsequent deal in 2025, showing a consistent willingness to prioritize team success over personal earnings.
Auston Matthews: Assessing His Worth
Auston Matthews has been an influential figure in setting market trends. After securing the highest AAV contract at one point with his four-year, $13.25 million deal, Matthews’ recent struggles with injuries may impact his bargaining power as he heads into free agency in 2028. If he can recapture his top form, especially reflecting back on his back-to-back Hart Trophy-winning seasons, he could very well assert himself into the max contract conversation.
Connor Bedard: The Spotlight and the Pressure
Last on this list, but not least, is Connor Bedard. Though his rookie contract situation is more immediate, the talent that drew comparisons to McDavid still looms large. However, Bedard's journey has been rocky, riddled with injuries and pressures associated with high expectations. Having not yet secured a long-term deal before the 2026-27 season, it’s uncertain how his market value will be shaped in the aftermath of such disruptions.
Despite Bedard's over-a-point-per-game pace during the last season, the NHL's spotlight feels harsher due to his injuries and comparisons with fellow phenoms. It remains to be seen if he can solidify his bid for a max contract when the time comes, potentially rising to the occasion or being hindered by ongoing setbacks.
Ultimately, the impact of Carlsson's record-setting contract on these players will likely ripple through negotiations. With the potential for multiple players to reset the market, the NHL is entering a phase of player valuation that could reshape team strategies and the balance of power in the league.
