Corbin Burnes' Upcoming Return
Corbin Burnes is poised to make his long-awaited return to the Diamondbacks early next week, according to manager Torey Lovullo. After a significant recovery period following Tommy John surgery and a recent teres major strain, Burnes will take the mound for his first Major League game since June of last year. Lovullo has indicated that the right-hander will start on Tuesday, potentially throwing about 60 pitches. This moment signifies more than just a player returning to the field; it symbolizes hope for a team looking to solidify its playoff chances.
Performance Before Injury
Burnes, who joined Arizona on a six-year, $210MM contract at the start of the 2025 season, showed promise in his initial 11 appearances, posting a 2.66 ERA over 64 1/3 innings. His ability to induce ground balls at a 50.3% rate complemented a strikeout capability that remained intact, although his walk rate climbed slightly to 9.8%. This performance solidified his role as a key asset for the team. The metrics give insight into Burnes' potential impact: a solid ground ball percentage generally leads to fewer home runs and less damage from batted balls. The strikeout rate, while slightly tempered by increased walks, still underscores him as a formidable pitcher when healthy.
Recovery Timelines and Rehab Insights
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2025, pitchers typically face a recovery timeline of 12-14 months, but Burnes aimed for a return by the All-Star Break before his injury setback. This timeline is ambitious; it’s a tough road many pitchers travel. While some return successfully and transform their careers post-surgery, others find their performance hampered by lingering effects. He managed a two-inning stint in Triple-A on August 29, which was his only rehab appearance prior to the major league activation. This limited exposure raises questions: How ready is he? Will the competitive edge still be sharp? Remarkably, the team appears ready to sidestep additional rehab starts to bring him back to the rotation sooner, a decision that could prove risky, depending on how conservative the organization wishes to be with his health.
Potential Impact on the Diamondbacks' Playoff Push
With Burnes back in action, he could have the opportunity to make four starts before the regular season concludes. If he can stretch his outings to the 5-6 inning range by the final starts, there's a strong chance he'll contribute a full starter's workload during the playoffs. This situation poses a delicate balancing act for the coaching staff. They must maximize Burnes' contributions while ensuring they don’t exacerbate his health concerns. As an added bonus, the Diamondbacks currently have an open spot on their 40-man roster, allowing for a straightforward activation process. It’s crucial for a team in the hunt for the playoffs to navigate these roster decisions wisely.
The Current State of the Diamondbacks
As it stands, the Diamondbacks hold a 74-67 record and occupy a precarious half-game lead over the Padres for the last NL Wild Card slot. Their starting rotation has struggled, ranking among the bottom ten by fWAR this season, although their performance has improved modestly since August. Eduardo Rodriguez has stood out as the most effective starter for Arizona lately, with a 2.97 ERA over his last six outings, while Brandon Pfaadt has also demonstrated encouraging results. On the other hand, Merrill Kelly has struggled throughout the season, currently boasting a 5.85 ERA over his past six appearances. Rookie Jose Cabrera, who delivered five shutout innings in his MLB debut, has slipped, posting an ERA exceeding 6.00 over 19 innings. This mix of performance illustrates the inconsistent nature of the team's rotation. Burnes' return, even if he’s not at his best yet, strengthens a rotation desperate for stabilization. The stakes are high.
Contract Considerations and Future Outlook
Interestingly, Burnes' contract includes a player opt-out following the current season. Should he have returned earlier and performed well, a case for opting out may have been plausible. However, given his extended time away from the diamond, Burnes is unlikely to forgo the remaining four years and $140MM on his deal. Given that he and his family reside in Scottsdale, it seems almost certain he will see out his contract with the Diamondbacks, anchoring a $35MM salary into their 2027 payroll. This scenario dovetails with potential financial flexibility as Zac Gallen approaches free agency, as reported by MLBTR's Payroll Tracker. What this means for you, the fan, is that Burnes could remain a pivotal figure in the organization’s plans, impacting both performance and financial strategy.
Significance of Burnes’ Return
Corbin Burnes' return from injury is more significant than it looks at first glance. It’s not just about one player; it’s about the potential ripple effects throughout the lineup and the team's playoff ambitions. If Burnes can live up to past performances, he may not just be a part of the rotation but could also lead the charge in the playoffs. And yet, there’s a considerable risk involved. Will he be effective enough to justify the fans' and organization’s returns on that hefty investment? Only time will tell as Burnes prepares to step back onto the mound.
Photo courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images (via Reuters Connect)